Daily Archives: November 13, 2022

Revolt of the silent majority (and, of course you can’t trust Repugnican pollsters)

Fake polls put out by fake, pro-Repugnican “polling outfits” such as the Trafalgar Group (the screen shot above is taken from fivethirtyeight.com) contributed to the widely perceived “red wave” that never happened. John Fetterman actually beat Mehmet Oz for the U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania by 4 percentage points in the vote count thus far.

The midterm election results thus far have been what I’d expected them to be before Election Day this past Tuesday, with a few notable exceptions: I really did expect my U.S. senator, Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, to lose her seat, and I also had expected Democrat Katie Hobbs to lose the governorship of Arizona.

But Cortez Masto has kept her seat (albeit by less than one full percentage point in the vote count thus far), and Hobbs is leading, by 1.6 percent, in the vote count thus far, and widely is expected to win. (Arizona having two Democratic U.S. senators [although, of course, Kyrsten Sinema is a DINO who needs to be defeated in 2024] and a Democratic governor come January is pretty amazing, given its long history as a red state.)

Cortez Masto’s narrow victory means that come January, the Democrats will have at least 50 seats in the U.S. Senate, and thus will maintain their control of it, and will have 51 seats in the Senate if incumbent Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia wins his seat in the December 6 runoff, as he is widely expected to do.

For the longest time I’d figured that my governor, Democrat Steve Sisolak, would be elected to a second term, but he was defeated, narrowly (the current vote count has Sisolak having lost by only 1.6 percentage points), by Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, a milquetoast, rather moderate Repugnican who beat the Pussygrabberian Repugnican in the Repugnican primary race, nut job former boxer and current Reno ambulance chaser Joey Gilbert, in June.

It was only because the Repugnicans elected the saner Repugnican, Lombardo, over Gilbert in their primary that Sisolak lost; Gilbert could not have beaten Sisolak (who is, I understand, the only incumbent Democratic governor who has lost his or her seat to his or her Repugnican challenger in this election cycle).

By the way, Joey Gilbert, being a Pussygrabberian, immediately claimed that he’d actually won the June primary, but, just as it was the case with Team Pussygrabber, when it came time to actually prove that “stolen-election” assertion in court, Gilbert failed miserably, and if he was expecting some groundswell of public support here in the Silver State over the “stolen” Repugnican primary election, well, all that he got was crickets. No one in the state gave a shit, except for, I suppose, his closest associates. (In the vein of Herschel Walker, Gilbert took way too many hits to the head as a boxer, methinks.)

On that note, that probably also is in the top three surprising things to me about Tuesday’s midterm elections: Not only did most of the cray-cray and corrupt state secretary of state candidates lose — their shared platform of stealing future elections for Pussygrabber in the name of “election integrity” did not, after all, appeal to the majority of the electorate — but there has not been a huge outcry of “fraud!” after all of these Repugnican losses on Tuesday and these past several days as the vote counts grow.

Even the Repugnican state secretary of state candidates, as insane as they all are (including Jim Marchant, who, thank Goddess, lost the secretary of state race to the Democrat here in Nevada), are being, from what I can tell, fairly quiet about having been the “victims” of “election fraud.”

Which makes me think that the Repugnicans, as fucktarded as they are, finally have fucking realized that no, just claiming, without any proof whatsoever, that you actually won the election that you actually lost is not actually a good long-term strategy for the Repugnican Party.

It didn’t even work for former “President” Pussygrabber, except that he continued to bilk his mouth-breathing, knuckle-dragging dupes out of even more money with his Big Lie. Despite his daily baby-boomerian temper tantrums — and despite The Attempted Coup of the Basement-Dwelling, Animal-Skin Wearing Incels that he orchestrated on January 6, 2021 — Pussygrabber was removed from the White House by the majority of the American people, and that is what counts the most.

Other than the aforementioned surprises, the midterm elections overall went as I’d thought they would. I wrote on October 25:

I expect the Repugnicans to regain the U.S. House, but not by a huge margin. I don’t think that it will be a crushing red wave.

I expect the Democrats to hold on to the U.S. Senate, but probably only with the same 50-seat margin that they have now.

Indeed, while it widely was believed that the Democrats would lose at least one U.S. House seat here in Nevada, all three of the incumbent House Democrats kept their seats, and the House seat count right now, per fivethirtyeight.com, is quite close:

So much for the “red wave,” eh? I still expect the Repugnicans to barely win back the House, but Politico reports that “Democrats have a legitimate — if narrow — chance of retaining the lower chamber.”

It would be fucking hilarious if the Dems do keep the House as well as the Senate; we’ll see.

In any event, the Repugnicans are seriously weakened right now. They widely were expected to take back at least the House — by many seats — and we already know that that isn’t materializing.

So what happened? Why did the “red wave” fail to manifest?

For many reasons, I think.

First and foremost, I think, there is the silent majority — the Americans you don’t hear from because we are sane and because we have lives. When all that you hear are the cray-cray Repugnican voices, the loudest and most obnoxious voices, it’s easy to mistake that for actual political power.

Also, of course, that’s a political tactic: to try to induce your opponents into believing that their loss is inevitable, so that, demoralized, they just give up. (Indeed, this has been Pussygrabber’s dark magic, has it not — to use incessant bluster to try to cover up the fact that he’s actually a clueless, weak piece of shit?)

But we, the silent majority, did not give up on Tuesday (and in the early voting before Tuesday), and, indeed, we, the silent majority, ironically, took our country back.

Another reason the “red wave” didn’t happen is that very apparently, the Repugnicans flooded the zone with fake polls. Indeed, I remember seeing the Repugnican “polling outfit” Trafalgar especially consistently giving the Repugnican candidates better poll numbers than did the other, better and longer-established pollsters. It struck me as incredibly fishy — because it was/is.

If you think this is just a conspiracy theory, well, The New York Times’ Nate Cohn wrote this on November 5:

… This simple poll average is like many others you might have seen over the years. It weights the most recent polls more heavily. It gives more weight to pollsters that belong to a professional polling organization (they tend to be far less biased over the longer term). It doesn’t contain some of the fancier bells and whistles, like an adjustment for whether a poll tends to lean toward Republicans or Democrats.

But in one important respect, this average is very different from polling averages you’ve seen in prior years: The pollsters making up the average are very different.

Many stalwarts of political polling over the last decade — Monmouth University, Quinnipiac University, ABC/Washington Post, CNN/SSRS, Fox News, New York Times/Siena College, Marist College — have conducted far fewer surveys, especially in the battleground states, than they have in recent years. In some cases, these pollsters have conducted no recent polls at all.

And on the flip side, there has been a wave of polls by firms like the Trafalgar Group, Rasmussen Reports, Insider Advantage and others that have tended to produce much more Republican-friendly results than the traditional pollsters. None adhere to industry standards for transparency or data collection. In some states, nearly all of the recent polls were conducted by Republican-leaning firms. [Emphasis mine.]

This creates a big challenge for a simple polling average like this one. From state to state, Democrats or Republicans might seem to be doing much better or much worse, simply depending on which kind of pollster has conducted a survey most recently. The race may seem to swing back and forth, from week to week. …

Why were these Repugnican pollsters’ polls accepted and widely broadcast? Why were these dubious-at-best pro-Repugnican poll results reported and used in calculating polling averages at all?

To me that’s the bigger question.* Why the Repugnicans would put out fake polls benefiting themselves is fairly clear: They probably calculated that juicing the polling environment, including the popular polling averages, with their fake polls would make many Democrats give up and not vote. They probably figured that more Democrats would give up and not vote than the number of Repugnicans who might not vote, figuring that they wouldn’t need to vote if their candidates already were in the lead, according to the polling.

And if you want to get really sinister in your thinking (as I fairly easily can do), you might posit that the Repugnicans, in a coordinated campaign, decided to juice the pre-election polls with their fake pro-Repugnican polls in order to further bolster any potential claims of “election fraud” should they lose elections — after all, the polls had shown the Repugnicans winning!

I congratulate Democratic, independent and saner Repugnican voters for having seen through the treasonous Repugnican-fascist-Pussygrabberian bullshit and having prevented a “red wave” on Tuesday.

Our democracy was on the line, and the American voters came through.

All in all it’s been a bit too close for comfort — we dodged the fascist bullet this time — but a win is a win, and we won.

But we must maintain our vigilance.

History shows that fascism takes root where and when we allow it to.

*The answer to that question, though, is that it’s because the Repugnican-fascists are fucking bullies and also throw tantrums when they don’t get their way, so many Americans are afraid of crossing them and just let them have their way. So you consistently see a pro-Repugnican bias within the corporately owned and controlled “news” media and even within the polling industry.

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