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The usual suspects gather petition signatures to try to trigger a recall election that would oust Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom. But while California’s Repugnicans are loud and obnoxious, not even a full one-fourth of the state’s registered voters are Repugnicans, and a snowball has a better chance in hell than they have of seeing Newsom ejected and replaced by a Repugnican.
The corporately owned and controlled “news” media apparently want California Gov. Gavin Newsom to be recalled. Why? It’s wonderful sociopolitical conflict that could drag on for months, and the irony of the governor of the nation’s largest blue state being booted and replaced by a Repugnican (not going to happen!) is great click bait and helps ratings, and thus is good for the media’s profiteering.
But, alas, the math apparently just isn’t there for the Newsom recall proponents.
Newsweek is an excellent example of misreporting on this issue — whether it’s journalistic incompetence or intentional misrepresentation I’m not sure, but Newsweek has gone downhill over the past many years (since The Washington Post Company cut it loose in 2010), nonetheless.
Newsweek, in a recent piece titled “Gavin Newsom Edges Toward Recall as Officials Accept More Than 80 Percent of Signatures,” focuses on the fact that the Newsom recall proponents thus far have had a high rate of recall petition signatures accepted as valid.
The proponents have done well with their signature validity rate thus far — the California Secretary of State’s office reports that of those signatures put under the verification process thus far, 83.7 percent of them have been deemed valid, a comparatively high validity rate for such a petition. (For their signatures to be declared valid, the recall-election signatories have to be registered to vote at the residential address that they provide on the recall petition, and their signature on the petition must match their voter registration signature.)
But it’s not your validity rate that gets your recall effort on the ballot — it’s getting the number of required valid signatures that gets your recall effort on the ballot. (Fucking duh…)
Despite the Newsom recall effort’s bad website claiming (as I type this sentence) that the recall proponents have obtained “more than 1.6 million signed petitions,” per the state’s secretary of state’s office, the proponents had submitted only 1,094,457 raw (that is, unverified) signatures as of February 5.
I believe that the recall proponents have been lying for some time about the number of raw signatures that they have obtained. Why? Probably to give the false impression that they’re doing significantly better than they are (no one wants to back a losing effort, right?) — and, of course, to get money. Indeed, apparently based upon the recall proponents’ apparent chronic lying about their rate of success in obtaining the necessary signatures, the Repugnican National Committee earlier this month gave the recall effort $250,000 and the state Repugnican Party gave it $125,000.
Let’s continue with the math. For making the math easier, we’ll round up the recall proponents’ validity rate to 84 percent. So if 84 percent of the signatures from here on out remain valid, that means that 16 percent of the signatures from here on out will be declared invalid.
So, to get their number of valid signatures, the recall proponents need an amount of raw signatures equaling 1.16 times the total number of valid signatures that they need (to make up for the deficit caused by the invalid signatures).
They need 1,495,709 valid signatures to get their recall election; 1,495,709 times 1.16 is 1,735,022. So they’d need about that many raw (unverified) signatures to ensure that in the end they get the required number of valid signatures.
But, again, as of February 5, they had obtained only 1,094,457 raw signatures, per the state secretary of state’s office. Think about this: From June 10, when they first started gathering signatures, through February 5 — that’s more than seven and a half months (and almost eight months) — they were able to gather only 1,094,457 raw signatures. Yet between February 5 and their deadline of March 17, they’re going to get the remaining 640,565 signatures that they need?
That’s pretty fucking unlikely, in my book.
Why? For two reasons.
One, again, look how long it took them to get 1,094,457 signatures (almost eight months), yet in the not even full month and half between February 5 and March 17 they’re going to get the rest (again, 640,565 of them)?
Two, the lion’s share of the bat-shit crazy, Pussygrabberian Repugnicans in California (all of whom have Newsom Derangement Syndrome) already have signed a recall petition, I’m sure; the recall ringleaders already have obtained the low-hanging fruit, I’m sure, and after almost eight months, they were able to obtain only 63 percent of the 1,735,022 signatures that they need.
Again, I believe that the recall proponents have been lying for some time now about how many recall-petition signatures they have collected. Their website now says they have collected more than 1.6 million signatures, but for several weeks now the website has reported that they’ve collected more than 1.3 million signatures. (That figure reported on their website’s home page kept going up: first it was more than 1.3 million, then more than 1.4 million, then more than 1.5 million, and today, more than 1.6 million. Yet as of February 5 they didn’t have even 1.1 million raw signatures, per the secretary of state’s office.)
Unless the recall proponents, for whatever reason(s), have been sitting on hundreds of thousands of signatures until their final March 17 deadline, there is no fucking way that they haven’t been blatantly lying about their numbers for at least several weeks now.
If you feel that you have to lie like this, then you probably know that you’re probably going to lose.
Of course, being Pussygrabberians, I fully expect the recall proponents to falsely claim, when it’s finally announced that they didn’t get their required number of valid signatures to trigger a gubernatorial recall election, that no, they actually did — and that it’s only because of “fraud” that their Repugnican pipe dream, their little Repugnican vanity project that is the effort to recall Newsom, failed miserably, just as Pussygrabberism failed miserably.
Yes, they’ll scream “fraud!” It’s quite predictable.
Never mind that California is an overwhelmingly blue state, with 46 percent of its voters registered as Democrats to only 24 percent of them registered as Repugnicans, and that Gavin Newsom in November 2018 beat his pathetic Repugnican challenger 62 percent to 38 percent, and that in November 2020, Joe Biden beat Pussygabber in California 64 percent to 34 percent.
Never mind that the central issue that the Repugnicans are trying to use to take Newsom down — the novel coronavirus pandemic — raged unabated under former “President” Pussygrabber (the U.S. death toll now is just a few thousand shy of 500,000), and that without any real leadership in a national crisis from a so-called president, any state’s governor is limited in how much he or she can do (which every Californian voter with at least two brain cells to rub together knows).
Never mind that even if we’re going to try to blame the novel coronavirus pandemic on Gavin Newsom, the daily new cases of and the daily deaths from COVID-19 are falling quickly both nationally and in California. Here are the latest graphs with California’s numbers from the California Department of Public Health:
The Repugnicans — always willing to put a good crisis to use for their own personal and political gain, just like their Nazi forebears — could try to use COVID-19 against Newsom only as long as COVID-19 was worsening. That’s not the case now. And, of course, it’s awfully ironic that the very same set of anti-science, “freedom!”-screaming assholes who refuse to wear face masks in public and to follow other common-sense COVID-19 prevention measures would then pretend that they care so much about stopping the pandemic.
And it’s also ironic that, according to the Newsom recall proponents’ “thinking,” the voters of California are going to turn over the governorship of the state to the very same batch of Pussygrabberian brain-damaged flying monkeys who just last month attacked the U.S. Capitol in a treasonous effort to try to reverse the decisive results of the 2020 presidential election.
No, you see; despite all of this, if it’s officially declared — as it probably will be — that the Newsom recall proponents didn’t get their state-constitutionally required number of signatures to get their little recall election, the only possible explanation could be “fraud!”
Oh, well; let the fucktarded, wingnutty traitors have their little fucking tantrum.
It didn’t change the results of the 2020 presidential election, and it won’t get them their little recall election.