This is pretty much it. This, too. And this:
Things did change quite quickly: After Joe Biden won South Carolina not even a week ago — he always was expected to win South Carolina, but no matter, right? — centrist bottom-feeders Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar finally dropped out before Super Tuesday, endorsing Biden (along with the equally pathetic, stand-for-nothing, centrist bottom-feeder Beto O’Rourke, who had dropped out a long time ago).
And after Biden did significantly better in the Super Tuesday states than he had been expected to do, Mike Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren finally dropped out. (Pseudo-progressive Warren lost her home state of Massachusetts to both Biden and to Bernie Sanders on Super Tuesday.)
So now, finally, it’s a two-man race: Biden and Bernie.
This is not shocking. More than a year ago, in February 2019, I wrote:
If I had to bet right now on what the 2020 Democratic presidential ticket will look like, I’d bet that it’s Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden at the top of the ticket, and Kamala Harris or Beto O’Rourke as the veep candidate.
Because both Bernie and Biden would want a younger running mate to cancel out the (real or perceived) age issue, and because Biden and Bernie, both being from New England, would want to balance the ticket out geographically, and Harris from California or O’Rourke from Texas would accomplish that.
That said, would Biden or Bernie want to put another white guy on the ticket? Biden maybe wouldn’t care, but Bernie, I think, would pick Harris over O’Rourke.
And maybe Biden’s advisers would steer him away from making another white man his running mate (if he were going in that direction), so I think that Harris has a pretty good shot at the veep spot (a better shot than does O’Rourke), whether it’s Biden or Bernie at the top of the ticket.
I stand by that, except that I no longer see O’Rourke as a real possibility for the veep candidate. I don’t see either Biden or Bernie picking another white man as his running mate, perhaps especially now that the only candidates left standing are two old white guys (one with his wits and the other without).
I don’t think that Kamala Harris, who has been in the U.S. Senate for only a bit more than three years and who never articulated why she instead of someone else should be president (as a presidential candidate she had one job…), is qualified to be vice president, but I wholly could see Biden picking her as his running mate. (I don’t really see Bernie picking Harris because she is not a progressive, but is just another party hack. I’d rather that he pick Stacey Abrams, who strikes me as an actual progressive.)
But back to the battle that is now between Bernie and Biden:
Right now only about 80 pledged delegates separate the two candidates, and it’s all about the pledged delegates, not about the number of states that you have won. (On that note, though, so far, Biden has won 11 states and Bernie has won six, officially, although because he won Iowa’s popular vote, to me Bernie, not Buttigieg, won Iowa, so that would be seven states in Bernie’s column.*)
Bernie still can win more pledged delegates than Biden.
What could turn it around for Bernie?
Well, Joe Biden has shown significant cognitive problems for a long time now. How well could he hold up in the next Democratic Party presidential primary debate, which will feature only him and Bernie, who is a rather sharp, energetic debater, on March 15 in Phoenix, Arizona?
Can the addled Biden last through an entire debate with just Bernie?
Before you think that Biden has a lock on this thing, what if he melts down during the next debate, raising serious questions about his fitness for office? (Besides his steep cognitive decline — or perhaps as a function of it — Biden has an anger problem** — either one of which could cause him to implode on live national television.)
And would we rather that Biden seriously melt down during a Democratic primary debate — or during a presidential debate with “President” Pussygrabber? Do we want Biden to win the battle with Bernie only to then lose the war with Pussygrabber?
Because I don’t see Biden beating Pussygrabber, not with Biden’s stark mental decline. (Pussygrabber has lost his marbles, too, but he publicly displays his senility with much more panache. [That’s about as close to a “compliment” for Pussygrabber that I can come to.])
So this is my prediction: That as quickly as everyone jumped onto the Biden bandwagon — which is more about opposing Bernie Sanders than it is about wholeheartedly embracing Joe Biden, which does not put Biden in a position of strength — Biden still has plenty of time to implode, and I put it at a roughly two-in-three chance that he still will.
Meanwhile, the vast majority of Bernie’s base isn’t going to desert him for the likes of Joe Biden.
Yes, with 32 states still to go, Bernie still can win this thing.
*Here is what the map (from Wikipedia) looks like so far, with Bernie’s pledged-delegate wins in green, Biden’s in blue and Buttigieg’s “wins” in goldenrod:
Fairly clearly, thus far Bernie is the candidate of the West while Biden is the candidate of the South, primarily. (I expect Biden to finish his sweep of the South and Bernie to win most of the states in the West and in the North.)
I’m so not interested having a “Democratic” president whose base is in the backasswards fucking South.
**The supposedly always-“angry” Bernie gets animated over political ideas and over lies (which in our political climate abound). Biden, on the other hand, gets personally angry at individuals in his presence and attacks them personally. Big difference.
And when Biden isn’t attacking someone like an animal, he’s groping someone like an animal.