A recent poll indicates that if the Democratic presidential primary contest were between only Bernie and every single one of his current centrist competitors, he would beat them all. This lays waste to the “argument” that the Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters prefer the Clintonian version of the Democratic Party to Bernie’s progressive vision for the party.
Bernie Sanders is the Democratic presidential front-runner. (I’d say “undisputed front-runner,” but of course it’s disputed by the Democrats in name only who want to continue the pro-corporate toothlessness of the party that benefits them and their buddies.)
Fivethirtyeight.com right now gives Bernie the best chance of winning more than half of the pledged delegates, which would prevent a contested convention in July.
Nonetheless, there remain two “arguments” against Bernie that defy both logic and math.
One of them is that Bernie isn’t doing nearly as well right now as he did in 2016. For instance, in 2016 he won the New Hampshire primary with 60.1 percent of the vote, but last week he won New Hampshire with “only” 25.7 percent of the vote. So he has only a fraction of the support now than he did in 2016!
Except that of course in 2016 there were only two viable candidates, Bernie and Billary Clinton, and the pledged-delegate pie was split only between those two. (That said, in 2016 Bernie did quite well against Her Inevitable Highness Queen Billary — he won 46 percent of the pledged [that is, democratically earned] delegates, and he won 22 states.)
Today, we still have five candidates averaging double digits in the nationwide polling: Bernie, Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg, in that order. This time, the primary vote isn’t being split in just two ways, but in at least six, if you include the insufferable Amy Klobuchar, who nationwide is polling only around 5 percent but who did come in at third place in New Hampshire.
The other “argument” that the Bernie haters make is that if you add up the totals that the centrist candidates (the other five candidates listed in the preceding paragraph*) are getting in the primary voting right now, that vote total exceeds Bernie’s, “proof” that the voters want centrism over progressivism, hands down.
But of course that “argument” is deeply flawed, too, so, like a Valentine’s Day gift, I gleefully read this on Slate.com on Friday:
If you look at the national Democratic primary polls, it might seem as if Bernie Sanders is only the front-runner because his many opponents have split up the party’s moderates.
The senator from Vermont currently leads in the Real Clear Politics polling average with 23.6 percent of the vote. Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, and Amy Klobuchar, by comparison, combine for 48.6 percent. Surely one of them could win in a head-to-head match-up against Sanders, right?
Maybe not. Yahoo News and YouGov are out with a new poll showing that Sanders beats all of his top competitors in head-to-head races. He currently wins at least 53 percent of the vote against Bloomberg, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar, none of whom break more than 38 percent. The match-up is closer with Biden, who gets 44 percent versus 48 percent [for] Sanders. But the tightest race is with Warren, who trails him 42 percent to 44 percent, with plenty of undecideds. [Emphasis mine.] …
This poll suggests that if it were just Bernie and any of his current competitors running right now, Bernie still would come out on top — laying waste to the “argument” that the Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters today clearly prefer tepid, insipid centrism over bold, unapologetic progressivism.
The logical and mathematical arguments aside, the way that this is going to play out is that Bernie is going to win even more states this round than he did in 2016. Minimally, he will win the plurality of the pledged delegates.
Hopefully, Bernie will manage to get more than half of the pledged delegates so that it doesn’t go to a contested convention. (Right now, fivethirtyeight.com gives Bernie the highest chance of doing that, but it’s only a 36 percent chance. [Fivethirtyeight.com gives Biden the second-highest chance of getting more than half of the pledged delegates — but it’s only a 14 percent chance. Again, Bernie is the clear front-runner.])
Why don’t I want to see a contested convention? Because I know that the Democrats in name only won’t respect a plurality win if it’s Bernie who gets it, but will frame his plurality win as a loss.
It won’t matter at all to the DINOs that more Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters cast a vote for Bernie than for any of his competitors.
They only want to “win,” even if they have to cheat to do so, and if they have the chance to shove a centrist sellout down our throats, despite the fact that more of us voted for Bernie than for any other candidate, they will take that chance without shame and with little to even no hesitation.
Yet another subversion of the will of the voters would polish off the already deeply tarnished establishmentarian Democratic Party forever, but these DINO assholes don’t think in the long term; they think only of how they can cheat and steal right now.
A better way for us, the people, to finally rid ourselves of the centrist, pro-corporate, sellout “Democrats” is not to wait until after the DINOs have fucked over Bernie to protest vehemently, but to make it crystal clear to them beforehand that should they even dare to try to fuck us over now like they did in 2016, we are going to make them toast.
We, the people, need to make the repercussions of their cheating very, very clear to these traitors before they even seriously attempt to cheat again.
If we, the people, don’t allow the DINOs to cheat yet once again, then we, the people, will win.
*Yes, I include Elizabeth Warren as a centrist candidate.
I believe that her touting of some progressive ideals and ideas was meant more to co-opt Bernie’s support than anything else, and of course I would trust a President Sanders much more than a President Warren to actually enact a progressive agenda.
After all, while Warren still was a Repugnican up to 1996, Bernie never has been a Repugnican but always has been a progressive.
While Warren busied herself with “plan” after “plan” to try to “prove” that she isn’t a progressive-come-lately — which she is — Bernie hasn’t had to do that because his progressivism is in his bones, which is evident to all who have eyes to see and ears to listen.