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Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders debate in Miami in June. Repugnican Lite Biden’s nationwide lead over actual Democrat Bernie continues to dissipate; right now Real Clear Politics’ average of recent nationwide polling has Biden at only 3.7 percent ahead of Bernie. Biden’s paltry nationwide lead will vanish after Bernie wins Iowa tomorrow, and then New Hampshire on February 11, and then Nevada on February 22.
I usually don’t go out on a limb, but this time I’ll indulge myself, and I’m barely going out on a limb anyway: Real Clear Politics’ average of recent Iowa polls right now has Bernie at 4 percent ahead of Joe Biden. That’s enough for me to believe that Bernie more likely than not will win the Iowa caucuses tomorrow.
Pundits have said that if Bernie even ties with Biden in the Iowa polls right up to the caucuses, Bernie most likely will win the state, since his supporters have the advantage where enthusiasm is concerned, and enthusiasm is quite necessary for people to go out and caucus for up to several hours on a cold Iowa night, not giving up for their candidate.
After Bernie wins Iowa, he no doubt will win the February 11 New Hampshire primary, in which RCP right now has him polling at 9.5 percent over Biden.
Then it’s on to the Nevada caucuses on February 22; that’s 11 days after New Hampshire for Bernie’s having won both Iowa and New Hampshire to sink in and marinate among the electorate of the remaining states.
Nevada is barely polled; two polls taken there last month, however, give Biden an average of 22 percent and Bernie an average of 17.5 percent. As I’ve said before, if Bernie wins Iowa and New Hampshire, there’s probably no way that he isn’t going to win Nevada, given how close to Biden he already is there; everyone wants to be on the winning team.
On that note, again, the Bidenbots (who mostly are former Billarybots) believe that backasswards South Carolina, which holds its primary election on February 29, somehow is going to save Biden’s ass. (You have to wonder how much of a real Democrat a “Democratic” presidential candidate possibly can be if he or she is the most popular in the red states — in enemy territory — like Billary was and Biden is now.)
Not after his having lost the first three states will South Carolina bail Biden out. Think of how much time between Iowa and South Carolina — 26 days — Bernie’s status as the front-runner, the winner, will have time to grow and solidify. This will cripple Biden.
Yes, Biden might win South Carolina, where right now RCP has him at 13.5 percent ahead of Bernie. I expect Biden to win South Carolina, but not by what he’s polling there now; Bernie’s wins in the first three states will diminish that.
(Should Bernie manage to win South Carolina, which I don’t think is likely, but if he did, then the nomination would be his without question.)
After South Carolina is Super Tuesday on March 3. The blue behemoth California, which awards more pledged delegates to the convention (415 of them) than does any other state, votes on Super Tuesday, and right now Bernie leads Biden in California by 4.8 percent, per RCP.
(Texas awards the second-highest number of pledged delegates on Super Tuesday, 228 of them. Right now Biden leads Bernie in Texas by 12.2 percent, per RCP — but just as Biden still will earn delegates from California even though Bernie will win California, as pledged delegates to the convention are divvied up proportionately, Bernie still will earn delegates from Texas, even if Biden wins Texas.)
Because of The Sheeple Effect — in which wins magnify the front-runner’s status as a winner to create even more wins, and losses magnify the losers’ status as losers to create even more losses — I don’t see this being a brokered convention, as the Bidenbots would love to see, since they’d love to subvert the will of the people, as they did with Billary in 2016.
Bernie Sanders’ rise should come as a shock to no one. It’s common for the presidential candidate who came in at No. 2 the last time around to win the presidential nomination the next time. This trend doesn’t somehow skip Bernie Sanders because so many Democrats in name only don’t like him.
I have reservations about saying that it’s a candidate’s “turn,” since this was widely believed about the undeserving Billary in 2016, but this time, it is indeed Bernie’s turn — and his time.