Monthly Archives: February 2020

We can’t let them steal the nomination from Bernie Sanders a second time

Associated Press news photo

Bernie Sanders celebrates his win of the Nevada caucuses yesterday while campaigning in San Antonio, Texas, which votes on “Super Tuesday” on March 3. “I think all of you know we won the popular vote in Iowa,” Bernie told the crowd in San Antonio. “We won the New Hampshire primary. And according to three networks and the AP, we have now won the Nevada caucus. In Nevada we have just put together a multi-generational, multiracial coalition which is going to not only win in Nevada, it’s going to sweep this country.” Nonetheless, all of Bernie’s competitors for the party’s presidential nomination said in the debate last week that they’d be A-OK if party insiders chose the nominee instead of we, the people.

It was great watching the insufferable losers, especially Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, eviscerate each other during the Wednesday Democratic presidential primary debate in Las Vegas, but to me, the most telling moment of the debate came at the end.

That’s when the candidates were asked if they would support the candidate who won the most pledged delegates — the delegates that you must win democratically in the primary elections and caucuses — or if they’d be OK with the voters’ wishes being overturned at the party convention in July — where, if a candidate gets a plurality of the pledged delegates but not an absolute majority of them, party insiders — the so-called “super-delegates” — can vote for a candidate who didn’t win the most pledged delegates but whom they want to see get the nomination nonetheless.

In other words, fuck democracy. Fuck the people. What do we, the people, know?

Here is the transcript of that portion of the debate:

TODD [the insufferable Chuck Todd, one of the moderators]: Guys, guys, we are at the end here. …

We are less than two weeks away from a national primary. And I want to ask all of you this simple question. There’s a very good chance none of you are going to have enough delegates to the Democratic National Convention to clench this nomination, OK?

If that happens, I want all of your opinions on this. Should the person with the most delegates at the end of this primary season be the nominee, even if they are short of a majority? Senator Sanders, I’m going to let you go last here, because I know your view on this.

(LAUGHTER)

So instead, I will start with you, Mayor Bloomberg.

BLOOMBERG: Whatever the rules of the Democratic Party are, they should be followed. And if they have a process, which I believe they do…

TODD: OK, I’m trying to do this yes or no to make it fast.

BLOOMBERG: … everybody else — everybody can…

TODD: So you want the convention to work its will?

BLOOMBERG: Yes.

TODD: Senator Warren?

WARREN: But a convention working its will means that people have the delegates that are pledged to them and they keep those delegates until you come to the convention.

TODD: Should the leading person?

WARREN: All of the people.

TODD: OK. All righty. Vice President Biden?

BIDEN: Play by the rules.

TODD: Yes or no, leading person with the delegates, should they be the nominee or not?

BIDEN: No, let the process work its way out.

TODD: Mayor Buttigieg?

BUTTIGIEG: Not necessarily. Not until there’s a majority.

TODD: Senator Klobuchar?

KLOBUCHAR: Let the process work.

TODD: Senator Sanders?

SANDERS: Well, the process includes 500 super-delegates on the second ballot. So I think that the will of the people should prevail, yes. The person who has the most votes should become the nominee.

TODD: Thank you, guys. Five noes and a yes.

Wow.

So all of Bernie Sanders’ competitors are just fine with the “super-delegates” simply overturning the will of the voters. They wouldn’t feel the least bit guilty being handed the nomination by the “super-delegates,” knowing that we, the people, through our votes, had chosen someone else.

This is all that you need to know about Bernie’s competitors: They’re craven, selfish, power-hungry pieces of shit. All of them: Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, of course Repugnican-turned-“Democrat” billionaire Michael Bloomberg, and even supposed “progressive” Elizabeth Warren — none of them would respect the democratic process, but instead would be A-OK with stealing the nomination from Bernie Sanders even if he had won the highest number of votes.

This is the deal, though: The Democratic Party already is pretty fucking wobbly. One good push — which brazenly subverting the will of the voters a second time would be — and the party will collapse. Of that I have no doubt.

I already changed my party registration from Democrat to independent after the Democratic Party hacks, the DINOs, fucked Bernie Sanders over in 2016. If they fuck him over again, what tiny amount of support I have left for the Democratic Party will evaporate entirely.

Don’t get me wrong; I support the progressive ideals that the Democratic Party used to stand for. I oppose the self-serving, Repugnican-Lite, corporate-ass-licking turncoats who are the Democratic Party establishment hacks who have run the party into the ground. The party no longer stands for the people, but stands for those who only use the party to further their own greedy, selfish, power-hungry ends, trying to use the party label as cover for their very vile existence.

As they say, I didn’t leave the party; the party left me.

So here is the deal: Right now, fivethirtyeight.com, after Bernie’s blowout win of Nevada yesterday, gives Bernie a 46 percent chance of winning a majority of the pledged delegates, which would deny the “super-delegates” the chance to steal the nomination from him.

Hopefully, after Bernie’s blowout win of Nevada — and Politico notes that “Bernie Sanders didn’t just win the Nevada caucuses,” but that “He crushed the rest of the primary field, closing in on another early-state victory and proving an ability to broaden what was once believed to be a narrow coalition” — Bernie will continue to win big in the subsequent states and thus will win a clear majority of the pledged delegates.

But if Bernie should win a plurality rather than a majority of the pledged delegates — which fivethirtyeight.com right now puts at about a one-in-two chance — we, the people, must make it crystal fucking clear to the Democratic Party establishment hacks that if they steal our democratic voice from us again by simply anointing a candidate we did not choose, we will burn what’s left of the Democratic Party to the fucking ground.

And total destruction is what the Democratic Party would deserve if it dared to brazenly autocratically subvert the will of the voters, of us, the people.

From the ashes of the Repugnican-Lite Democratic Party, we, the people, could build a new, actually progressive, actually democratic party that actually represents us and our best interests for fucking once.

P.S. Note that fivethirtyeight.com gives loser Pete Buttigieg less than even a 1 percent chance to win a majority of the pledged delegates, but Buttiboy, bitter and sour because he’s not winning — we truly are seeing his (and the other candidates’) true colors now — will continue to attack Bernie viciously.

It’s a good thing that, generally speaking, attacks on Bernie only help him. (Just ask Elizabeth Warren and Billary Clinton; after they smeared Bernie like the Repugnican-Lite jokes that they are, he only went up in the polls.)

It’s too late, Petey Boy — you have had ample opportunity to make your “case” to the people as a pro-corporate, centrist sellout, and the voters just aren’t that into you.

Deal with it.

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NO, Democratic voters DON’T actually want rehashed DINO centrism

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A recent poll indicates that if the Democratic presidential primary contest were between only Bernie and every single one of his current centrist competitors, he would beat them all. This lays waste to the “argument” that the Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters prefer the Clintonian version of the Democratic Party to Bernie’s progressive vision for the party.

Bernie Sanders is the Democratic presidential front-runner. (I’d say “undisputed front-runner,” but of course it’s disputed by the Democrats in name only who want to continue the pro-corporate toothlessness of the party that benefits them and their buddies.)

Fivethirtyeight.com right now gives Bernie the best chance of winning more than half of the pledged delegates, which would prevent a contested convention in July.

Nonetheless, there remain two “arguments” against Bernie that defy both logic and math.

One of them is that Bernie isn’t doing nearly as well right now as he did in 2016. For instance, in 2016 he won the New Hampshire primary with 60.1 percent of the vote, but last week he won New Hampshire with “only” 25.7 percent of the vote. So he has only a fraction of the support now than he did in 2016!

Except that of course in 2016 there were only two viable candidates, Bernie and Billary Clinton, and the pledged-delegate pie was split only between those two. (That said, in 2016 Bernie did quite well against Her Inevitable Highness Queen Billary — he won 46 percent of the pledged [that is, democratically earned] delegates, and he won 22 states.)

Today, we still have five candidates averaging double digits in the nationwide polling: Bernie, Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg, in that order. This time, the primary vote isn’t being split in just two ways, but in at least six, if you include the insufferable Amy Klobuchar, who nationwide is polling only around 5 percent but who did come in at third place in New Hampshire.

The other “argument” that the Bernie haters make is that if you add up the totals that the centrist candidates (the other five candidates listed in the preceding paragraph*) are getting in the primary voting right now, that vote total exceeds Bernie’s, “proof” that the voters want centrism over progressivism, hands down.

But of course that “argument” is deeply flawed, too, so, like a Valentine’s Day gift, I gleefully read this on Slate.com on Friday:

If you look at the national Democratic primary polls, it might seem as if Bernie Sanders is only the front-runner because his many opponents have split up the party’s moderates.

The senator from Vermont currently leads in the Real Clear Politics polling average with 23.6 percent of the vote. Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, and Amy Klobuchar, by comparison, combine for 48.6 percent. Surely one of them could win in a head-to-head match-up against Sanders, right?

Maybe not. Yahoo News and YouGov are out with a new poll showing that Sanders beats all of his top competitors in head-to-head races. He currently wins at least 53 percent of the vote against Bloomberg, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar, none of whom break more than 38 percent. The match-up is closer with Biden, who gets 44 percent versus 48 percent [for] Sanders. But the tightest race is with Warren, who trails him 42 percent to 44 percent, with plenty of undecideds. [Emphasis mine.] …

This poll suggests that if it were just Bernie and any of his current competitors running right now, Bernie still would come out on top — laying waste to the “argument” that the Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters today clearly prefer tepid, insipid centrism over bold, unapologetic progressivism.

The logical and mathematical arguments aside, the way that this is going to play out is that Bernie is going to win even more states this round than he did in 2016. Minimally, he will win the plurality of the pledged delegates.

Hopefully, Bernie will manage to get more than half of the pledged delegates so that it doesn’t go to a contested convention. (Right now, fivethirtyeight.com gives Bernie the highest chance of doing that, but it’s only a 36 percent chance. [Fivethirtyeight.com gives Biden the second-highest chance of getting more than half of the pledged delegates — but it’s only a 14 percent chance. Again, Bernie is the clear front-runner.])

Why don’t I want to see a contested convention? Because I know that the Democrats in name only won’t respect a plurality win if it’s Bernie who gets it, but will frame his plurality win as a loss.

It won’t matter at all to the DINOs that more Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters cast a vote for Bernie than for any of his competitors.

They only want to “win,” even if they have to cheat to do so, and if they have the chance to shove a centrist sellout down our throats, despite the fact that more of us voted for Bernie than for any other candidate, they will take that chance without shame and with little to even no hesitation.

Yet another subversion of the will of the voters would polish off the already deeply tarnished establishmentarian Democratic Party forever, but these DINO assholes don’t think in the long term; they think only of how they can cheat and steal right now.

A better way for us, the people, to finally rid ourselves of the centrist, pro-corporate, sellout “Democrats” is not to wait until after the DINOs have fucked over Bernie to protest vehemently, but to make it crystal clear to them beforehand that should they even dare to try to fuck us over now like they did in 2016, we are going to make them toast.

We, the people, need to make the repercussions of their cheating very, very clear to these traitors before they even seriously attempt to cheat again.

If we, the people, don’t allow the DINOs to cheat yet once again, then we, the people, will win.

*Yes, I include Elizabeth Warren as a centrist candidate.

I believe that her touting of some progressive ideals and ideas was meant more to co-opt Bernie’s support than anything else, and of course I would trust a President Sanders much more than a President Warren to actually enact a progressive agenda.

After all, while Warren still was a Repugnican up to 1996, Bernie never has been a Repugnican but always has been a progressive.

While Warren busied herself with “plan” after “plan” to try to “prove” that she isn’t a progressive-come-lately — which she is — Bernie hasn’t had to do that because his progressivism is in his bones, which is evident to all who have eyes to see and ears to listen.

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Bernie can’t win — even when he wins (except, of course, that he IS winning)

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Most successful, lasting revolutions were years in the making. Bernie Sanders never said that his — our — “revolution” would be quick or easy; quite the opposite.

The corporately owned and controlled mass media are incredibly fucking predictable.

While The Associated Press hasn’t even called Iowa more than a week later because the Iowa caucuses once again were FUBAR (the head of the state’s Democratic Party is resigning), we know that Bernie Sanders won New Hampshire yesterday.

No, it wasn’t by a huge margin, but it was a win.

But a win is not a win if you are Bernie Sanders.

“Bernie Sanders’s ‘revolution’ may not materialize after narrow New Hampshire primary win,” The Washington Post proclaimed. Not to be outdone, “Sanders ekes one out, but the revolution has yet to arrive,” Politico so helpfully “informs” us.

Um, I’ve been following Bernie Sanders since at least 2015. I’ve given him hundreds of dollars from 2015 to the present and have read (and written) about him extensively, as well as have consumed countless hours of video of and about him. I stood in line for at least two hours to see and hear him speak at one of his big (redundant…) rallies. He never promised a quick and easy “revolution.” He’s always been clear that regime change, so to speak, takes years, years of persistence and hard work.

The corrupt, ultimately treasonous individuals who have power now aren’t just going to hand it over. We, the people, have to take it from them — bloodlessly, hopefully.

Bernie never proclaimed that if he simply won Iowa and New Hampshire in 2020, the “revolution” would be a fait accompli.

Indeed, even just getting Bernie’s septuagenarian ass into the big chair behind the big desk in the Oval Office — a huge undertaking in and of itself, which ostensibly began in 2015 but which actually began decades before even then — would be only the beginning of the long battle for the reclamation of the United States of America for us, the people.

As long as the corporate whores in Congress and elsewhere in D.C. and elsewhere within the power-elite power system keep selling out us, the people, for their own personal and political gain, we have fights to pick and wars to wage.

And even should we arrive at the promised land, we will have to fight to keep it.

But it’s no shock that those who benefit from the sociopoliticoeconomic status quo — even just the toadies of the corporately owned and controlled mass media who love their positions of privilege that our plutocratic overlords keep them in, since they do our plutocratic overlords’ propagandist bidding — keep trying to shoot down Bernie Sanders.

But we, the people, are voting, and thus far the plurality of us are voting for Bernie Sanders.

That the status-quo weasels won’t stop taking shots at Bernie despite how well he’s doing in the race to the nomination shows how out of touch they are with the common people.

Here is a graph (from Wikipedia) of the current nationwide polling of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters:

That downward-plunging navy blue line? That’s Joe Biden, who now is polling around 20 percent nationally. That upward-surging green line? That’s Bernie, who’s now No. 1 nationally, polling around 23 percent.

That downward-plunging red line is faux progressive Elizabeth Warren, who was supposed to fool Bernie’s supporters into following her sorry, former-Repugnican ass instead of following him, but she’s now languishing in fourth place nationally, at around 13 percent. (But she’s doing better than Boy Scout Pete, who, despite coming in the top two in Iowa and New Hampshire, is in fifth place nationally, with around only 10 percent. [He’s represented in the graph above by the goldenrod line.])

That upward-surging purple line represents former Repugnican billionaire Michael Bloomberg, who nationally is now at No. 3, with around 14 percent.

Joe Biden was supposed to win this thing, remember? But if not Joe, then, well, bait-and-switch Warren.

But now that both Biden and Warren are tanking, the centrist Democrats in name only apparently actually are eyeing Bloomberg to be their savior. How fucking desperate is that — we’ll just put another egotistical plutocrat up against egotistical plutocrat “President” Pussygrabber?

A huge part of what’s at stake here is our overlords’ ability to continue to keep us serfs at bay. For decades now they’ve shoved their “pragmatic,” “sensible” candidates, like Billary (and then Biden), down our throats, and of course they weren’t about to allow Barack Obama to materialize any of that change that he promised ubiquitously, even if he truly had intended to deliver it (I have my severe doubts that he ever had intended to do any hard work, but that he just said anything in order to win the 2008 presidential election).

But now, we, the people, despite the self-serving, double-dealing establishment’s unrelenting attacks on Bernie Sanders, are picking Bernie Sanders — at least a plurality of us thus far are doing so.

In fact, the more that Bernie is attacked, the more he surges in the polls — and the more he rakes in the donations and the votes. Attacking the only good guy in the race only makes the rot — and the U.S. is seriously rotting from within — even more obvious.

The corporate whores of the corporately owned and controlled mass media may say whatever they please; we, the people, are seeing and thus are saying something else entirely.

Prediction market PredictIt.org right now has Bernie winning the next state, Nevada, and then even the next state after that, South Carolina. Joe Biden was supposed to win South Carolina hands down, remember?

PredictIt.org also has Bernie winning California and Texas on Super Tuesday (as well as Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia, etc.).

Fact is, while the establishment is telling us that Bernie can’t win, Bernie is going to win most of the 50 states this time around, and, again, the more that our corporate overlords and their corporation-loving quislings attack Bernie, the stronger he becomes.

But, again, Rome was not built in a day; the work of Bernie’s — our — “revolution” will continue past his death, whether he ever becomes president or not.

But when the American people finally stop voting for the pro-corporate, pro-plutocratic candidates we’re told we have to vote for — lest we bring ruin upon ourselves (when the exact opposite would happen were we to firmly and consistently reject the never-ending conga line of sellout candidates and settle only for non-treasonous, democracy-loving, populist-in-the-good-way candidates like Bernie Sanders) — the “revolution” has begun.

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Is a floundering Boy Scout Pete getting down and dirty to ‘win’?

First, the release of the final Des Moines Register poll of Iowa was quashed because of Pete Buttigieg’s campaign. Then, Buttigieg declared victory in Iowa before even the partial results of the Iowa caucuses were released. Is this all just a coinky-dink? Or is Buttiboy doing his best to rig it in his favor?

You know, it’s beyond just starting to look a bit fishy.

First, the famous final Des Moines Register poll of Iowa — a long-standing fucking political tradition — was not released on Saturday reportedly because a respondent supposedly reported that his or her favored candidate, Pete Buttigieg, was not among the list of candidates he or she was asked about when polled by phone. The New York Times reports that

Lis Smith, a senior adviser to the Buttigieg campaign, said they shared [this] information with the media organizations, which conducted an internal investigation [and then killed the release of the poll]. “We applaud CNN and the Des Moines Register for their integrity,” she wrote on Twitter.

Yes, I’m sure that the Buttigieg campaign was quite happy to have a potentially-damaging-to-their-candidate poll aborted. We just have to trust them that they were telling the truth, that it wasn’t a pre-meditated, well-coordinated lie or even just a misperception by the individual who supposedly reported the “issue.”

Then, even before the Iowa Democratic Party had even released its partial results this afternoon (62 percent of the precincts — pathetic), Boy Scout Pete announced that he’d won the Iowa caucuses.

It had been circulated, you see, that Bernie Sanders might pull something dastardly like this.

To one thing I perhaps can give the benefit of the doubt, but how many Buttiboy-related things are we going to have to witness before we get to conclude that he’s trying to rig this thing?

He has the smarts — he’s a Boy Fucking Genius, remember — and he certainly has the motive: Nationwide, he’s in fifth place in the polling, behind No. 4 Michael Bloomberg. If anyone could use a little boost right now, it’s Buttiboy.

Oh, and those 62-percent-of-the-Iowa-precinct results right now put Buttiboy at 26.9 percent and Bernie at a close second at 25.1 percent. Even if it ends up — after Iowa finally reports 100 percent of the results that we’re still supposed to just trust at this point — that Bernie came in at No. 1 in Iowa after all, here is Buttiboy getting to be viewed as the (at-least-preliminary) winner of Iowa at least for a day.

The good news from Iowa’s preliminary, partial results (assuming that they are accurate…) is that they show Joe Biden at No. 4. As I noted, if Biden doesn’t even make it into the top three in Iowa, I think he’s done. He will be three for three for failed attempts at the Democratic Party presidential nomination. (He first tried in 1988 and then again in 2008.)

In the meantime, we Berners need to keep our eye on Buttiboy.* He is desperate right now, and desperate people sometimes take desperate measures.

*Granted, if Buttiboy is taking some of that center-right, Repugnican-Lite support away from Biden, then perhaps he is serving some greater good right now…

I mean, I still don’t see Buttiboy succeeding past the first few states, but if he can take Biden down with him by eating into Biden’s support in the first few states, that’s great.

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Iowa screws Bernie again

Image result for sad Bernie Sanders"

I easily could get conspiratorial in my thinking right about now, wondering aloud if the Democratic establishment in Iowa (and elsewhere) knew that Bernie Sanders won (or at least probably won) the state last night but wanted to deny him the victory lap by delaying the “official” results to today.

Up until last night, I had dismissed calls for Iowa to no longer be the first state in the nation to hold a presidential caucus or primary election. That probably changed last night.

Exactly four years ago today — in response to the debacle that was the Iowa caucuses then — I wrote: “As I noted recently, there is no good reason for Iowa not to scrap the caucus model altogether and adopt a primary-election model, which most of the states possess.”

I perhaps could let the 2016 Iowa caucuses go, even though I suspect that Bernie won them (the “official” result was 49.9 percent Billary Clinton to 49.6 percent Bernie Sanders!), but to have significant problems the next time around is beyond problematic.

Bernie Sanders’ campaign sent out an e-mail today, attributed to his campaign manager Faiz Shakir, that reads, in part:

Last night was a bad night for democracy, for the Democratic Party, and for the people of Iowa.

But because you have done so much for this campaign, and in the interest of full transparency as we wait for the Iowa Democratic Party to release results, we want to share the numbers that we have at this moment:

As a result of an extraordinary grassroots campaign, fueled by thousands of volunteers who knocked on hundreds of thousands of doors, our internal results sent to us by precinct captains around the state indicate that with close to 60 percent of the vote in, we have a comfortable lead. Our numbers also show Pete Buttigieg is currently in second, followed by Elizabeth Warren, then Amy Klobuchar and Joe Biden.

Let me reiterate that these are unofficial results, but we wanted to share them to let you know we feel very good about where we are at right now as we head to New Hampshire.

We are to receive the “official” results from the Iowa caucuses later today, reportedly. If Bernie did indeed win, as the polling had suggested he would, he deserved to have a victory party last night, not today.

I could go all conspiracy-theory on this, but for now, I won’t. I’ll more or less (more on the “less” side) trust, for now, Iowa officials’ claim that they have all of the accurate data from the caucus sites, but that they have had to rely on the paper trail because their vaunted application/software for the caucuses did not work the way it was supposed to.

Regardless of how Iowa 2020 pans out, we Berners press on; we’ve been at it for some years now. Overthrowing the corrupt, self-serving establishment is not exactly accomplished overnight.

All of that said, if Biden indeed didn’t come in at least in the top three in the Iowa caucuses, I think you can stick a fork in him.

Even if Boy Scout Pete comes in the top three in Iowa, I still don’t see a path to the 2020 nomination for him — or for Amy Klobuchar.

Turncoat “progressive”-come-lately Elizabeth Warren might surprise us yet, but if I had to put money on it, I’d still bet that Bernie Sanders is the 2020 Democratic Party presidential candidate.

And for 2024, I’d probably be OK with Iowa retaining its first-in-the-nation status — but only if it scraps the caucuses and adopts the primary-election model instead, as it should have done for this year, as I wrote four fucking years ago today.

If Iowa fucks up a third time, though, I’d say three strikes and they’re out. The first-in-the-nation spot should go only to a state that can fucking handle it.

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Bernie will win Iowa tomorrow

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Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders debate in Miami in June. Repugnican Lite Biden’s nationwide lead over actual Democrat Bernie continues to dissipate; right now Real Clear Politics’ average of recent nationwide polling has Biden at only 3.7 percent ahead of Bernie. Biden’s paltry nationwide lead will vanish after Bernie wins Iowa tomorrow, and then New Hampshire on February 11, and then Nevada on February 22.

I usually don’t go out on a limb, but this time I’ll indulge myself, and I’m barely going out on a limb anyway: Real Clear Politics’ average of recent Iowa polls right now has Bernie at 4 percent ahead of Joe Biden. That’s enough for me to believe that Bernie more likely than not will win the Iowa caucuses tomorrow.

Pundits have said that if Bernie even ties with Biden in the Iowa polls right up to the caucuses, Bernie most likely will win the state, since his supporters have the advantage where enthusiasm is concerned, and enthusiasm is quite necessary for people to go out and caucus for up to several hours on a cold Iowa night, not giving up for their candidate.

After Bernie wins Iowa, he no doubt will win the February 11 New Hampshire primary, in which RCP right now has him polling at 9.5 percent over Biden.

Then it’s on to the Nevada caucuses on February 22; that’s 11 days after New Hampshire for Bernie’s having won both Iowa and New Hampshire to sink in and marinate among the electorate of the remaining states.

Nevada is barely polled; two polls taken there last month, however, give Biden an average of 22 percent and Bernie an average of 17.5 percent. As I’ve said before, if Bernie wins Iowa and New Hampshire, there’s probably no way that he isn’t going to win Nevada, given how close to Biden he already is there; everyone wants to be on the winning team.

On that note, again, the Bidenbots (who mostly are former Billarybots) believe that backasswards South Carolina, which holds its primary election on February 29, somehow is going to save Biden’s ass. (You have to wonder how much of a real Democrat a “Democratic” presidential candidate possibly can be if he or she is the most popular in the red states — in enemy territory — like Billary was and Biden is now.)

Not after his having lost the first three states will South Carolina bail Biden out. Think of how much time between Iowa and South Carolina — 26 days — Bernie’s status as the front-runner, the winner, will have time to grow and solidify. This will cripple Biden.

Yes, Biden might win South Carolina, where right now RCP has him at 13.5 percent ahead of Bernie. I expect Biden to win South Carolina, but not by what he’s polling there now; Bernie’s wins in the first three states will diminish that.

(Should Bernie manage to win South Carolina, which I don’t think is likely, but if he did, then the nomination would be his without question.)

After South Carolina is Super Tuesday on March 3. The blue behemoth California, which awards more pledged delegates to the convention (415 of them) than does any other state, votes on Super Tuesday, and right now Bernie leads Biden in California by 4.8 percent, per RCP.

(Texas awards the second-highest number of pledged delegates on Super Tuesday, 228 of them. Right now Biden leads Bernie in Texas by 12.2 percent, per RCP — but just as Biden still will earn delegates from California even though Bernie will win California, as pledged delegates to the convention are divvied up proportionately, Bernie still will earn delegates from Texas, even if Biden wins Texas.)

Because of The Sheeple Effect — in which wins magnify the front-runner’s status as a winner to create even more wins, and losses magnify the losers’ status as losers to create even more losses — I don’t see this being a brokered convention, as the Bidenbots would love to see, since they’d love to subvert the will of the people, as they did with Billary in 2016.

Bernie Sanders’ rise should come as a shock to no one. It’s common for the presidential candidate who came in at No. 2 the last time around to win the presidential nomination the next time. This trend doesn’t somehow skip Bernie Sanders because so many Democrats in name only don’t like him.

I have reservations about saying that it’s a candidate’s “turn,” since this was widely believed about the undeserving Billary in 2016, but this time, it is indeed Bernie’s turn — and his time.

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