Daily Archives: January 26, 2020

The right time to surge

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders sit next to one another on a stage.

Getty Images news photo

Bernie Sanders appears with the smug snake queen Billary Clinton at a campaign event for Billary in North Carolina in early November 2016. The fight for the soul of the Democratic Party — keeping it as a Clintonian Repugnican Lite party or returning it to its progressive roots — is as alive today as it was in the 2016 presidential election cycle, only this time, Bernie — who is surging in the polls right now — is in a stronger position to win the nomination.

There was an attempt by Democrats in name only — including Billary Clinton and Billary Jr. (Elizabeth Warren) — to slimily take down Bernie Sanders right before the Iowa caucuses, but apparently the DINOs’ tactics have backfired; Bernie is only surging in the polls instead.

Attacks from self-serving, center-right, establishment, Repugnican-Lite “Democrats” only make the contrasts between them and the ironically only real Democrat in the race — Bernie — only even more vivid. They are only helping Bernie to make his case even more strongly.

Wikipedia’s average of nationwide poll averages right now puts a slipping Joe Biden at only about 6 percentage points ahead of Bernie nationwide, about 28 percent to 22 percent.

Warren is going nowhere — she’s stuck at No. 3 with about 15 percent nationwide — and billionaire former mayor Michael Bloomberg has overtaken Former Mayor Pete with about 8 percent to Pete’s about 7 percent. (Yes, Pete Buttigieg is now at No. 5 to No. 4 Bloomberg.)

Real Clear Politics’ average of Iowa polls has Biden and Bernie essentially tied in Iowa, around 21 percent each, with Buttigieg at No. 3 around 18 percent, and Warren at No. 4 with 16 percent (no other candidate breaks into the double digits).

RCP’s average of New Hampshire polls has Bernie clearly in the lead, with about 22 percent, Biden at No. 2 with 17 percent, and Buttigieg at No. 3 with about 15 percent. Warren is at No. 4 in New Hampshire, with about 14 percent (and no other candidate breaks into the double digits).

The prediction market PredictIt.org right now has Bernie handily winning the first three states of Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada — and has Bernie over Biden as becoming the 2020 Democratic Party presidential nominee.

While PredictIt.org also has “President” Pussygrabber beating Bernie, the match-up polls show the opposite: RCP’s average of match-up polls between Bernie and Pussygrabber shows Bernie ahead of Pussygrabber by 3.2 percentage points.

The only Democratic candidate who does better against Pussygrabber than does Bernie is Biden, but not by much; RCP’s average of match-up polls between Biden and Pussygrabber show Biden ahead of Pussygrabber by 4.3 percentage points. (The incumbent’s advantage, even if that incumbent is the impeached Pussygrabber, is strong and is not easy to overcome.)

Warren beats Pussygrabber by only 1.4 percentage points — yes, let’s talk about electability — and Buttigieg leads Pussygrabber by an insignificant 0.4 percent.

(Bloomberg matches Bernie, also beating Pussygrabber by 3.2 percent, but I don’t see Bloomberg emerging as the nominee; the current political climate is not very friendly to billionaires whose last elected stint was as a Repugnican.)

Again, if all 50 states voted on the same day, Biden, with his 6-point national lead, very likely would win the nomination, but that’s now how it works. Instead, wins in the first two states magnify your status as a winning candidate, while losses in the first two states magnify your status as a losing candidate.

The domino effect (or, as I like to call it, The Sheeple Effect) may not be “fair,” but it is what it is.

If Elizabeth Warren comes in at fourth place in both Iowa and New Hampshire, as she is in the polling in those two states right now, stick a fucking fork in her, because she’ll be quite done.

Conversely, I’ll confidently predict that if Bernie wins Iowa, he then definitely wins New Hampshire, where he already leads significantly, and that if he wins Iowa and New Hampshire, then No. 3 Nevada will fall into line. (RCP right now has the average of Nevada polls with Biden leading Bernie by about 6 percentage points — which will evaporate if Bernie wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, I am confident.)

I’m sure that many if not even most deluded DINOs (redundant) still believe that No. 4 South Carolina still could save Biden’s ass if Bernie won the first three states, but I disagree wholeheartedly.

After South Carolina is Super Tuesday on March 3, and Super Tuesday will include the blue behemoth California, where RCP’s average of polls has Biden and Sanders essentially tied around 23.5 percent. So they’re essentially tied in California right now, but if Bernie wins Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, he’ll shoot up in the Golden State. (PredictIt.org has Bernie winning California handily, by the way.)

Don’t get me wrong; of course Joe Biden still could win the 2020 Democratic Party presidential nomination; the race is now between Bernie and Biden.*

But the current polling, which shows Bernie surging at exactly the right time, certainly lays waste to any claim that Bernie can’t win the nomination. He can, and, again, I believe that Bernie winning Iowa probably would slingshot him to the nomination.

Further, should Bernie come in at No. 2 in Iowa, I think he’d still win New Hampshire, but it probably would be more of a slog to the nomination that it would have been had Bernie won Iowa.

(Note that in 2016, Billary barely “won” Iowa — “by the closest margin in the history of the state’s Democratic caucus,” per Wikipediaunder a cloud of suspicious irregularities. In 2016 Bernie won New Hampshire, but it was a long slog to the nomination after that.**)

Still, if I had to put money on it, I’d say that Bernie wins Iowa on February 3 — he is benefiting from the fact that as the No. 2 Democratic Party presidential primary contest winner in 2016**, he’s well-placed now, and from the fact that he is riding the sociopolitical zeitgeist of finally returning the Democratic Party to its progressive roots.

Bernie also is the mirror opposite of “President” Pussygrabber: both are anti-establishment candidates in a time when anti-establishment candidates do well, and both are populists — only, again, they are mirror opposites: Bernie’s democratic socialism is diametrically opposed to Pussygrabber’s rank fascism.

Bernie is the good kind of populist, and hopefully in November 2020 the voters will put the right kind of populist into the White House this time.

P.S. Note that while Bernie appeared at numerous campaign events for Billary after she “won” the nomination in 2016 — oh, he probably had to take an anti-emetic and hold his nose to be able to do it, but he did it — “All About Unity” Billary has said that she doesn’t know if she will be able even to endorse Bernie should he win the nomination.

As many pundits have pointed out correctly, to the DINOs, “unity” means only that those who are left of center should fall in line with the center-right — never vice-versa. It’s entirely one way with the corporate-ass-licking DINOs.

Of course, as I’ve already noted, Billary campaigning for Bernie this year probably would do him more harm that good, since only about a third of Americans like Billary while the overwhelming majority despise her sorry baby-boomer ass.

Billary needs to remain in the shadows, where she belongs, while the rest of us rebuild the nation that she and her husband (and, to be fair, Barack Obama) helped the Repugnican Party to destroy.

*As I wrote back in March of last year:

The most likely scenario for 2020, I think, is that Biden runs and that it’s essentially a repeat of 2016: the establishmentarian, corporate-friendly, center-right, Barack-Obama-linked “Democrat” against actual Democrat (ironic!) Bernie Sanders — the dead hand of the past vs. the future.

Only this time, I think, Bernie will dispatch his party-hack opponent more quickly than it took Queen Billary, with her bots within the Democratic National Committee and elsewhere with the national Democratic Party power structure, to dispatch Bernie.

It was, after all, Bernie’s first rodeo. Not so this time.

**People forget (if they ever knew…) how well Bernie did against Billary in 2016. Bernie won 22 states and won 46 percent of the pledged (the actually democratically earned) delegates. No fringe fucking candidate does that well.

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