The latest nationwide polls of Democratic Party presidential preference indicate that the top three are Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg (in some order).
Joe Biden is running. The former vice president will make his candidacy official with a video announcement next Wednesday, according to people familiar with the discussions who have been told about them by top aides.
Seriously, he’s actually made a decision. It’s taken two years of back-and-forth, it’ll be his third (or, depending on how you count, seventh) try for the White House, and many people thought he wouldn’t do it, but the biggest factor reshaping the 2020 Democratic-primary field is locking into place. …
Good for Creepy Uncle Joe (not really; I don’t like him at all), but perhaps he has waited a bit too long.
An Emerson College poll taken April 11 through April 14 is the first nationwide poll of Democratic Party presidential preference that has Bernie Sanders beating Biden — 29 percent to 24 percent.
I’m cautious, though, because even though fivethirtyeight.com rates Emerson College polls highly, with a B+, the poll had only 356 respondents and thus a margin of error of plus or minus 5.2 percent.
Another recent nationwide poll, however, also indicates that it has tightened between Bernie and Biden. A Change Research poll (Change Research is rated with a C+ by fivethirtyeight.com) taken April 12 through April 15, and which had 2,519 respondents and thus a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percent, put Biden at 21 percent and Bernie at 20 percent.
We’ll see over the coming week or two if these two polls are outliers or if they indicate a new trend. Up to now, Biden has kept a clear lead over Bernie in the nationwide polls, which for a long, long time have had Biden at No. 1 and Bernie at No. 2.
We’ll also see if, as the aforementioned two polls indicate, Pete Buttigieg truly has now made it into the top three, displacing Kamala Harris, who has/had been in third place in the nationwide polling for quite a while.
In the aforementioned Emerson College poll, Buttigieg came in at third place with 9 percent, just 1 percent ahead of Harris, and in the aforementioned Change Research poll, Buttigieg came in at third place with a whopping 17 percent (and Beto O’Rourke came in at fourth place with 9 percent, and Harris came in at sixth place with only 7 percent).
If Biden actually decides to shit instead of to get off of the pot, we’ll see how (and if) the numbers shift. I don’t expect Biden to have a huge surge in the polling simply if he finally makes it official, because all along he has been included in most of the nationwide polling and because most poll respondents, I believe, have believed that indeed he’s going to run.
If indeed the new top three are Biden, Bernie and Buttigieg (in any order), that would lay waste, methinks, to the “conventional wisdom” that we have heard for a long time now that Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters are starving for a 2020 Democratic presidential candidate who isn’t a white man.
I’m not saying that it’s good or bad that the top three candidates all might be white men; I’m just pointing out how actual polling can show that the echo chamber can have it quite wrong.
I don’t believe, however, that, say, Kamala Harris is being penalized because she is a woman of color. I think she hasn’t caught fire because she’s just another uninspiring Democratic Party hack. She is low-charisma, and laughably as of late has taken to calling herself a “joyful warrior.”
I’ve lived in California since 1998, and when she was the state’s attorney general for six years (before she became a U.S. senator in November 2016), she struck me as neither joyful nor as a warrior. She’s as warm and fuzzy as a wet blanket, and she has taken no political position that wasn’t calculatedly quite safe.
Ditto for Cory Booker; he’s not being punished for being a black man. It’s that he’s an ultra-cheap knock-off of Barack Obama, such a bad imitation of Obama that he struggles to get even 5 percent in most nationwide polls. (That and those of us who realize that Obama royally punk’d us — promised us “hope” and “change” but mostly delivered only more of the same — aren’t exactly hungry to be punk’d again.)
And I don’t believe that Elizabeth Warren is being penalized because she is a woman. I think she hasn’t caught fire because in a nationwide sociopolitical environment of MAGA-cap-wearing, mouth-breathing, knuckle-dragging fucktards, she has chosen The Doomed Path of The Egghead, rolling out a professorial new policy proposal every other day.
This tack hasn’t caught on, yet nevertheless, she has persisted. (Ha ha…)
Pete Buttigieg is an egghead, but he has mastered the political art of not coming off as an egghead, or not too much of one, anyway. He doesn’t make people of average or below-average intelligence feel insecure about their intellectual deficiency.
The fact that Beto O’Rourke is a white man but struggles in the polling points to, I surmise, the fact that most Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters aren’t voting solely out of identity politics, but do expect you to have charisma, integrity and substance, regardless of what’s between your legs and regardless of what color is your skin.
In other words, O’Rourke is, methinks, being punished fairly for his lack of at least substance. (And since his “charisma” comes off as incredibly contrived — and hokey, to put it mildly — it’s not true charisma.)
All of that said, we can’t know for sure if Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters are concerned that “President” Pussygrabber, in today’s sociopolitical environment, can be defeated in November 2020 only by another white man.
That is a possibility that I can’t rule out, unfortunately.
However, if that is the “conventional wisdom,” and if this “conventional wisdom,” as it sometimes does, proves to be correct, I, for one, would much rather that a white-male Democratic presidential candidate beat Pussygrabber in November 2020 than the likes of, say, Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren or Cory Booker lose to Pussygrabber in November 2020.