Daily Archives: February 24, 2019

Bernie’s No. 1

The Washington Post’s Aaron Blake has updated his top-15 Democratic Party presidential nominee rankings, and inexplicably, he puts Kamala Harris (the establishment’s wishful thinking) at No. 1 and Bernie Sanders at No. 2.

Why inexplicably?

Because in reputable nationwide polls* of Democratic presidential preference, Bernie beats Harris by between 5 and 10 percentage points (see here and here), and because in his first 24 hours of fundraising after making his official presidential campaign announcement last week, Bernie garnered around $6 million from more than 225,000 individual donors, whereas in her first 24 hours, Harris raised $1.5 million from only 38,000 donors — that’s one-fourth of the funds and one-sixth of the number of donors.

I know only a few people besides myself who ever give a political candidate a dime, so the fact that Bernie’s first-24-hours fundraising haul was what it was demonstrates that people love him — and that they’re putting their money where their hearts are.

Even CNN, which generally has not been friendly to Bernie, and which employs the beyond-awful political “analyst” Chris Cillizza (whose “analysis” is comprised of his simply pulling shit from his ass), noted that Bernie’s first-24-hours take was “a record-smashing debut that easily outstripped his Democratic rivals.”

Keep in mind that the Democratic National Committee’s threshold for a Democratic presidential candidate making it into the primary debates, which are to begin in June, is based on the candidate’s polling and fundraising success, and Bernie already has qualified.

Here are the blurbs that WaPo’s Blake provided for both Harris and Sanders to “justify” his rankings:

Sen. Kamala D. Harris (Calif.): Nobody’s launch has been as impressive as Harris’s, save for Sanders’s fundraising haul. The California senator seems comfortable in her own skin, on-message and sharp, and it has made her a somewhat surprising early favorite in betting markets. The big early question for her, though, is whether her past “tough on crime” stance toward criminal justice fits with today’s Democratic Party.

and

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.): The 2016 Democratic runner-up is the latest big entrant in this race (not that there was much question he’d run). And he started off with a bang, raising nearly $6 million in about 24 hours — about four times his nearest competitor. That’s coming from the base he already built, yes, but that’s also kind of the point: 225,000 people gave to his campaign almost immediately, signifying a sizable reassembled base with which to start in a crowded field where assembling such a base won’t be easy.

So, Sanders outpaces Harris on almost every measure — except for, supposedly, the betting markets, even though as I type this sentence, Bernie is slightly ahead of Harris on the betting market PredictIt.org.

And the claim that Harris “seems comfortable in her own skin, on-message and sharp” is rather demolished by this clip in which she very apparently desperately looks around for a lifeline when she (predictably!) is asked by a reporter about her premature tweet, meant to garner her cheap and easy political Brownie points, calling Jussie Smollett’s made-up hate crime against him “an attempted modern-day lynching.”

My view is that Harris actually isn’t ready for prime time (which isn’t a shock, since she’s been in D.C. for a whopping two whole years now), and/but that she gets a pass because she’s a woman of color in an age of toxic identity politics — and because she is establishmentarian: Like was the case with Barack Obama and Billary Clinton, our corporate overlords aren’t terrified of Harris because they know that as president, at most she would apply Band-Aids to our beyond-broken system of runaway capitalism.

Conversely, why does the establishment hate Bernie Sanders so much? Because he freely and repeatedly points out how corrupt the establishment is and because as president it’s clear that he’d actually do something about it — and because he’s so fucking popular because of that fact.

Indeed, of the announced candidates for the Dem presidential nomination, Bernie is No. 1, and if Joe Biden doesn’t jump into the race, Bernie’s competitors very most likely are toast.

But it’s fine for the establishment whores to keep on pretending that Bernie Sanders isn’t as strong and powerful as he is. The more that the establishment whores claim that Bernie is weak, against all actual evidence, the more their dupes will believe that their weak candidates are much stronger than they actually are. And this can only help Bernie.

P.S. Rounding out Blake’s top five are Elizabeth Warren at No. 3, Cory Booker at No. 4 and Joe Biden at No. 5.

I tend to go by the nationwide polling — you know, the measure of what Dem and Dem-leaning voters actually think.

And in the nationwide polling, it’s Biden at No. 1, Bernie at No. 2, Harris at No. 3, Warren at No. 4, Beto O’Rourke at No. 5 and Cory Booker at No. 6. (Again, see here and here.)

The thing is, you’re not in it until you’re in it, so Biden’s and O’Rourke’s polling right now, of course, will mean nothing if they don’t actually run.

But by any measure, Bernie Sanders at least is at No. 2, a strong position in which to be. Again: Bernie haters, please keep underestimating him.

*How do I define a reputable nationwide poll?

First and foremost, it has a big sample size (and thus a smaller margin of error). I love the fact that Morning Consult, for example, will have thousands of respondents when most polling outfits don’t bother to get to even 600 respondents (and thus have sizable margins of error).

Also, a poll that includes someone who very probably isn’t even going to run, such as Billary Clinton or even Michelle Obama, to me is flawed from the get-go because it’s offering its respondents a “choice” that isn’t even an actual choice, contaminating all of the results.

Finally, a poll whose results are striking outliers from other nationwide polls that have large sample sizes — I am suspect of those polls and I usually disregard them as the outliers that they very much appear to be.

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