Daily Archives: February 4, 2019

The state of the Dem race for prez

Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris

The latest polling indicates that as of right now, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris are in first, second and third place, respectively, for the 2020 Democratic Party presidential nomination.

It’s just one poll, but it’s the most recent poll that I’ve seen: A Morning Consult nationwide poll of 2020 Democratic presidential preference taken on Friday and Saturday (February 1 and 2) shows Joe Biden with 29 percent, Bernie Sanders with 16 percent, and Kamala Harris with 14 percent.

Indeed, it’s safe to say, I think, that for right now, anyway, Harris is at No. 3.

However, the poll partially was taken on the day that Cory Booker announced his candidacy (Friday, February 1), so the poll doesn’t (fully) capture what support Booker might have siphoned thus far from Harris. (The poll puts Booker and Beto O’Rourke both at only 5 percent.)

At fourth place in the poll is Elizabeth Warren, with only 6 percent. Perhaps her best bet is if one or even two of the top-tier candidates doesn’t run after all and/or implodes…

Again, this is just one poll, but I’ll go out on a limb and take a wild guess that because Biden got 33 percent in Morning Consult’s poll taken January 25 through 27, and then dropped four percentage points (to 29 percent) in Morning Consult’s most recent poll, and because Kamala Harris went from 10 percent in the January 25-27 poll to 14 percent in the most recent poll, a pick-up of four percentage points, Kamala Harris thus far is siphoning establishmentarian support from Biden more than she is siphoning any of Bernie’s support.

Indeed, Bernie remains pretty much the same in Morning Consult’s polls taken over the past month — around 16 percent. His support thus far certainly isn’t huge, but it’s steady.

Should Warren drop out (my best guess is that she will if she remains stubbornly stuck in the single digits), Bernie would inherit most of her support, I imagine.

And if Biden runs and he and Harris split the establishmentarian vote, that would, methinks, benefit Bernie, as would Warren’s departure.*

I tend to agree with this writer’s take that much as was the case with the 2016 Repugnican presidential field, when there was the overcrowded party establishmentarian track and the anti-establishmentarian Pussygrabber, who benefited from a fractured establishmentarian field, with the 2020 Democratic presidential field, there is the overcrowded party establishmentarian track and the anti-establishmentarian Bernie.

That would be where my comparisons between Bernie and Pussygrabber would end, of course; both are anti-establishmentarian and both are populist, although I hate to call Pussygrabber “populist” because I tend to think of a populist as a progressive, but technically you could say that Hitler was a populist too.**

P.S. I see now that a Monmouth University poll taken January 25 through 27 put Biden at No. 1 (with 29 percent), Bernie at No. 2 (16 percent) and Harris at No. 3 (11 percent). So I’m pretty confident that this indeed is the order, as of right now.

*Don’t get me wrong. Liz is my second choice behind Bernie, but she is splitting the progressive vote, methinks, and if she doesn’t catch fire after a while, I do think that, if she cares about the progressive movement, she’ll drop out.

**A definition of “populism” is “any of various, often anti-establishment or anti-intellectual political movements or philosophies that offer unorthodox solutions or policies and appeal to the common person rather than according with traditional party or partisan ideologies.”

While I definitely would call Pussygrabber’s “MAGA” “movement” anti-intellectual (and at least proto-fascist if not fully fascist), I wouldn’t call Bernie anti-intellectual. But otherwise, that definition of “populism” fits both Bernie and Pussygrabber.

But this definition is more in line with my own personal definition of “populism”: “representation or extolling of the common person, the working class, the underdog, etc.”

Leave a comment

Filed under Uncategorized