Updated below (on Friday, June 3, 2016)
In five days, the nation’s most populous state finally weighs in on the race for the Democratic Party presidential nomination.
The two California polling outfits that I trust the most, the Field Poll and the Public Policy Institute of California, both polled Californian voters recently, and both put Billary Clinton at only two percentage points ahead of Bernie.
Alas, a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll of Californian voters also found only a 2-percent difference, with Billary at 49 percent to Bernie at 47 percent.
If I had to put a large sum of money on it, I’d bet for Bernie. My best guesstimate is that he’ll win by within a few percentage points, but it doesn’t strike me as impossible that he’ll actually win by low double digits.
Real Clear Politics’ average of the California polls right now has Billary at 4.7 percent ahead of Bernie, and the Huffington Post’s average of the California polls right now has Billary at 6.2 percent ahead, but these averages include polls from outfits that are outside of California and don’t know my state like the Field Poll and the PPIC know my state.
True, it all will come down to turnout, as the Field Poll’s director, Mark DiCamillo, wrote:
… While it is a truism that turnout is a key factor in determining who will win any close election, it is especially true in this race. This is because there are unusually wide differences in preferences across many key subgroups of the [California] Democratic presidential primary electorate, and even modest changes in the relative sizes of each subgroup could significantly alter the standings.
The widest differences [between Bernie and Billary] are generational, with Sanders the overwhelming choice of voters under age 30 and Clinton preferred by a two-to-one margin among Democratic primary voters age 65 or older.
There are also big differences between registered Democrats, who favor Clinton by nine points, and nonpartisans intending to vote in the Democratic presidential primary, who are now backing Sanders two to one. …
So: If you’re a Californian who is eligible to vote on Tuesday, June 7, and you haven’t already voted for Bernie by mail (as I have), be sure to turn out on Election Day! If you can’t, check here to see if your county offers early voting. (More general California elections information is here.)
As California goes, so goes the nation, and if Bernie wins California on Tuesday, admittedly that massive political embarrassment for her might not be enough to doom DINO Billary’s second presidential bid, but it would spell doom for the bu$ine$$-a$-u$ual DINOs.
A Bernie victory in California next week at the bare minimum would be the wake-up call that the DINOs finally can’t ignore; it would be gargantuan writing on the wall that even the blindest of the DINOs couldn’t miss.
Bernie’s revolution will come sooner or later; Billary’s elderly supporters will die — they have many, many more days behind them than they have ahead of them — but the progressivism that Bernie represents will live on.
P.S. On Tuesday, the corporately owned and controlled mass media are going to report that the corporately owned and controlled Billary Clinton has reached the number of delegates (2,383 of them) that she needs to win the 2016 Democratic Party presidential nomination.
This will be bullshit.
This delegate count will include the number of super-delegates who have said that they will vote for Billary at the Democratic Party convention in late July.
However, Billary doesn’t actually have those super-delegates’ votes before the fucking convention.
There remains time for the super-delegates to realize that Bernie Sanders is more likely to beat Donald Trump in November; indeed, here are the latest polling averages:
Real Clear Politics:
Bernie vs. Trump: Bernie up by 10.4 percent
Billary vs. Trump: Billary up by 1.5 percent
Huffington Post’s Pollster:
Bernie vs. Trump: Bernie up by 11 percent
Billary vs. Trump: Billary up by 4.2 percent
The super-delegates who truly want to prevent a President Trump will vote for Bernie Sanders at the Democratic Party convention in Philadelphia in late July.
Update (Friday, June 3, 2016): A new University of Southern California Dornsife College/Los Angeles Times poll — another homegrown and thus more reliable poll of Californian voters — has put Bernie Sanders at 44 percent and Billary Clinton at 43 percent, the first poll I’ve seen that has put Bernie ahead of Billary in California, albeit by 1 percent.
Over the past month or so Bernie has been “Bernstorming” California (I attended his May 9 rally here in Sacramento) — which very apparently has been paying off — while Billary has made fewer appearances (and drawing much smaller crowds), apparently arrogantly believing that she already had California in the bag. D’oh!