Is New York Bernie’s Waterloo?

Updated below (on Wednesday, April 20, 2016)

Associated Press photo

Billary Clinton, shown voting in New York today, won the state (by much more than just her vote for herself…) and appears to be on track to win the 2016 Democratic Party presidential nomination, but should she manage to win the White House — with her favorability rating among all Americans upside down by double digits in most polls — she’ll be a politically weak and vulnerable president from Day One, and probably will be an impeachment magnet. (A blast from the past! Good times!)

Early results from the Democratic Party presidential primary election in New York today aren’t good. As I type this sentence (at 6:37 p.m. Pacific Time; the polls closed 37 minutes ago), Politico shows Billary Clinton with 61.1 percent to Bernie’s 38.9 percent, with 26.8 percent of the precincts reporting.

Thing is, a week from today, five more states are voting — Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island — and Billary already has been favored to win all five of those states.

I don’t see Bernie recovering from a six-state loss this late in the game. Bernie really needed to win New York by a decent margin in order to help him win the majority of the pledged (democratically earned) delegates — and he needed the momentum that a surprise win in New York would have given him in the 15 states that are left (including my home state of California, which votes on June 7).

That said, 2,383 delegates are needed for the 2016 Democratic Party presidential nomination, and as I type this sentence Billary stands at 1,307 pledged delegates to Bernie’s 1,097.

Billary is more than a thousand delegates away (as I type this sentence), so if Bernie wants to take it to the party convention in late July until one of the two of them definitively reaches the magic number of required delegates (and that appears to be the case), that’s perfectly fine by me.

I’ve written before that Bernie Sanders might be the left’s Barry Goldwater — he might not get us to the promised land himself, but within a few presidential election cycles, we progressives just might get there. (We probably will, methinks.)

Indeed, the center-right, pro-corporate, sellout Democratic Party that Billary Clinton represents is on its last legs. This is why although Bernie Sanders is lambasted by Billary and her legions of bots for supposedly not being a real Democrat, we, the people, feel quite differently about that; recent nationwide polls of Dems and Dem leaners have Billary leading Bernie by only 1 percent to 4 percent. (The Democratic Party hacks believe that they get to decide who is and isn’t a real Democrat, but no, it is we, the voters, who do, fuck them very much.)

The Democratic Party hacks don’t want to see how irrelevant they have become and how endangered is their grip on power, but their end is nigh. How else to explain how their darling Billary still is duking it out with democratic socialist Bernie Sanders of Vermont? (In 2004, John Kerry had won the number of delegates that he needed to clinch the nomination by March 11 of that year.) And how else to explain that Billary is ahead of “fringe” candidate Bernie in the nationwide polls only within the margin of error?

The establishmentarian Democratic Party’s popularity is nosediving. We, the people, are beyond fucking sick and tired of being expected to choose between two evils, the Repugnican candidate and the Repugnican Lite candidate.

Barring something catastrophic (well, catastrophic for her, but good for the rest of us), Billary Clinton looks like she’s on a path to win what very well might be the current Democratic Party establishment’s last presidential nomination victory.

History very well might show that Billary was able to use her surname and her Clintonian brand of politics (which, in no certain order, consists of: flip-flopping and prevaricating, triangulating, deflecting, pandering to identity groups and stoking division within these groups for political gain, practicing corporate whoredom, etc.) — and the fact that her primary opponent always was an underdog, and was the only (viable) one who dared to challenge her cakewalk coronation — to win the 2016 Democratic Party presidential nomination.

Winning the White House in November when her favorability ratings are upside down by double digits in most polls of all American voters, however, would be another thing.

But should Billary Clinton manage to scratch, claw and crawl her way to the big chair in the Oval Office, she’ll start off in January 2017 as one of the least-liked new presidents in American history. Being thoroughly despised by the Repugnican Tea Party traitors and by a huge chunk of the independents and not being all that popular even within her own damned party (as Bernie’s success has demonstrated), she would have precious little political capital with which to work, and, as Bill Maher has (jokingly?) indicated, perhaps the Repugnican-controlled House of Representatives will impeach her in short order.

Another Clinton presidency would pretty much guarantee that the Democratic Party will, sooner rather than later, return to its progressive roots from which it strayed, under the “leadership” of the Clinton dynasty, no later than in the 1990s.

Sure, I’d love for Bernie Sanders to still win the 2016 Democratic Party presidential nomination.

But in the end, it’s the longer game that counts, and it always was about much more than Bernie Sanders, the man, but rather about what he stands (and doesn’t stand) for.

Indeed, while he has been an excellent champion of progressivism, Bernie didn’t start the fire of progressivism. He, a democratic socialist, picked up the progressive torch when no one else within the Democratic Party would because the Democratic Party is this fucking broken.

Indeed, the Clintonian Democratic Party’s long-standing deep brokenness — its selling out of the middle class, the working class and the poor to our corporate overlords in exchange for its focus on craven, divide-and-conquer identity politics while it ignores the insane income inequality that it not only has enabled but has encouraged — no doubt is why Bernie has been an independent in Congress for all of these years.

Who the fuck can blame him?

P.S. It’s 7:26 p.m. right now and New York was called for Billary a little while ago. Right now Politico reports that with 66 percent of the precincts reporting, it’s Billary’s 58.4 percent to Bernie’s 41.6 percent, a difference of almost 17 percent, which is at least a few percentage points higher than Billary had been polling in the state.

Donald Trump handily won New York, too, and his favorability ratings are even worse than Billary’s, so if he should win the Repugnican Tea Party presidential nomination, besides being a statement on the way-beyond-sad-and-sorry state of the body politic in the United States of America that it’s Billary Clinton vs. Donald Trump, that will/would/could be another factor in why and how Billary managed to get into the White House: not because she was beloved by the American people, but because the American people hated her opponent Donald Trump even more than they hated her.

Again, should we actually have a President Billary (shudder), she is going to start off as an incredibly weak and vulnerable president. And it probably won’t get better for her from there.

Update (Wednesday, April 20, 2016): Politico reports that with 98.5 percent of New York’s precincts reporting, right now it’s 57.9 percent Billary to 42.1 percent Bernie, a difference of almost 16 percentage points, which is a little bit better than Billary had polled up to election day yesterday.

After New York, the estimated pledged delegate counts are 1,446 for Billary and 1,205 for Bernie, a difference of 241 delegates. Billary has maintained a lead of 200-and-something pledged delegates for a long time now; it’s a lead that Bernie just hasn’t been able to cut into after Billary’s early-state wins.

While Bernie in the end might be able to cut Billary’s lead down to only 100-and-something pledged delegates, if he does exceedingly well in the remaining states, I just don’t see him going into the convention in July with a majority of the pledged delegates.

And, again, only if something big happened, such as Billary being indicted or having a significant medical event, would it be OK for the super-delegates to give the nomination to Bernie if he hadn’t won a majority of the pledged delegates, in my book.

Barring catastrophe (again, catastrophe only for her and her bots), I expect Billary Clinton to be the 2016 Democratic Party presidential nominee, which means that after the party’s convention in July I’ll probably check out of the presidential race, as it will be between two evils: Billary Clinton and whichever Repugnican Tea Party candidate emerges, probably Donald Trump.

I suppose that I’ll pay attention to the news, but my heart won’t be in it, and I don’t see myself being able to defend Billary against the predictable Repugnican Tea Party attacks against her.

Don’t get me wrong; I would want to defend the Democratic Party presidential candidate, but the corrupt, craven, center-right Repugnican Lite Billary Clinton is just way too fucking indefensible. I can’t work it (defensiveness or the enthusiasm that it would require) up for her.

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