The Huffington Post’s roundup of nationwide polls of Democrats and Democratic leaners shows right now that Billary Clinton is only 4.9 percent ahead of Bernie Sanders nationally. Here is HuffPo’s graph:
If you go to this HuffPo webpage and utilize the sliding bar along the graph (hover your cursor over the graph on the webpage, and you’ll see the sliding bar that you can manipulate to see the polling data over time), you’ll see that the current 4.9 percent difference is an all-time low for Billary for HuffPo.
And look at the trajectories on the graph: Billary’s trajectory is downhill and Bernie’s is steadily uphill.
Lest you think that HuffPo is an anomaly, know that Real Clear Politics right now very similarly puts Billary at only 4.8 percent ahead of Bernie. And if you look at RCP’s similar graph and use its similar sliding bar function, you’ll see that the 4.8 percent difference is Billary’s all-time low for RCP.
As I’ve noted, Billary right now is ahead in pledged/democratically earned delegates by only 214. That’s not some huge shitload. It’s a lead, but it’s not an absolutely insurmountable lead, especially if, as the graph above suggests, Billary is now falling while Bernie is continuing to rise when we have 17 more states to go (starting with Wyoming on Saturday, which Bernie is expected to win).
Bernie’s game plan, as I understand it, is to win more pledged delegates than Billary does before the party convention in late July. From what I can tell, Bernie is not worried about the fact that far more of the “super-delegates” prematurely have voiced their support for Billary than for him, because the “super-delegates” don’t have to stick with Billary, and because the “super-delegates” don’t get to vote until the convention.
Neither Billary nor Bernie will have the 2,383 delegates necessary to win the nomination by the time the convention begins, but if Bernie should go into the convention with significantly more pledged delegates than does Billary, there will be significant political pressure on the “super-delegates” to go with the will of the voters — and not with the obsolete and corrupt Clinton machine.
And if the nationwide sentiment of Dems and Dem leaners is clear from the nationwide polls — if by the time the convention begins the nationwide polls have Bernie significantly ahead of Billary (a real possibility, if the trajectories evident in the graph above continue in their directions) — that would make it even harder for the “super-delegates” to crown Billary if Bernie won the most pledged delegates.
The bottom line is that with 17 states still to go, and with Billary’s nationwide polling dropping at this critical time, Bernie Sanders can win this thing.
The better that Bernie does, the higher he climbs, the more Billary is going to lash out as she sees herself once again losing The Biggest Prize of Them All.
Fasten your seatbelts. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.
P.S. A new Field Poll has Billary only 6 percent ahead of Bernie in my state of California (47 percent to 41 percent). Bernie has plenty of time to overtake Billary here, as the primary election in the Golden State isn’t until June 7, two months from today.
Billary might win New York, as that primary is on April 19 and she’s polling around 10 percent or 11 percent there right now, but if she truly has dropped to the single digits here in California with two more months to go, she is in jeopardy of losing the largest blue state there is.