Billary Clinton must be shitting her pantsuit right about now.
Polls have the Nevada caucuses, which take place this Saturday, at a statistical tie between Billary and Bernie Sanders, and Billary’s lead in nationwide polling is dropping while Bernie continues to surge nationally.
Real Clear Politics’ average of the admittedly-too-few recent polls of Nevada right now has Billary at 46.5 percent and Bernie at 46 percent. The Huffington Post’s average of the Nevada polling right now has Billary at 48 percent and Bernie at 47 percent.
Bernie very well might take Nevada.
Real Clear Politics’ average of the nationwide polling right now has Billary only 12.8 percent ahead of Bernie, whereas HuffPo’s average of the nationwide polling right now has Billary up only 7.7 percent on Bernie.
If that doesn’t mean much to you, here is HuffPo’s graph that illustrates the trending in nationwide polling starting from January 12, 2015, to the present:
On January 12, 2015, the graph’s beginning, Billary stood at 60.8 percent to Bernie’s 4 percent.
Today, they stand at 48.2 percent to 40.5 percent. Um, yeah.
Team Billary’s propaganda has been that sure, Bernie would do well in Iowa and New Hampshire, but then rather immediately thereafter, he would crash and burn once he hit Billary’s “firewall.”
But Bernie might take Nevada, which would throw iced water on Billary’s post-Iowa-and-New-Hampshire “firewall,” dealing Team Billary a crushing blow.
Even if Billary takes South Carolina on February 27 — I expect her to, since RCP right now has her leading there by 21.2 percent and HuffPo right now has her leading there by 23.3 percent — if Bernie wins Nevada, I expect Billary’s “firewall” to collapse; South Carolina would prove to be an outlier, not the rule.
(If Bernie actually ekes out a win in South Carolina, then Billary definitely is toast, but again, unless something big happens between now and then, such as a federal indictment of Billary, I expect her to win South Carolina.)
As the Huffington Post’s graph of nationwide polling from January 2015 to the present indicates, the more that people learn about Billary and Bernie, the less they like her and the more they like him.
“Saturday Night Live” already has called the Democratic Party presidential primary battle, it seems to me. It recently had Billary Clinton singing Bonnie Raitt’s “I Can’t Make You Love Me” to Berners:
I don’t agree with all of the sentiments expressed in the skit, such as that Billary is the most qualified candidate for president we’ve ever had (oh, please) and that we Berners don’t go on substance but only on “vibe” (methinks that we go on both) — the writers wrote this bullshit, I have to suspect, to be able to say that they were “fair and balanced” to both candidates — but overall it captures where we’re at.
That said, as I’ve written before, what does it say of Billary that her strength is in the South? The South reflects the Repugnican Tea Party’s values and beliefs much, much more than it does the values and beliefs of the base of the Democratic Party.
I, for one, never would brag about being the darling of the South.